As we move into the final quarter of 2024, Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) seem to be getting a little braver—or, depending on how you look at it, quite riskier. Despite a somewhat wobbly start to October, there’s been a shift in behavior among STHs that could raise an eyebrow or two for anyone keeping a close eye on the crypto markets. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin’s realized cap for this cohort has shot up by $6 billion, suggesting that short-term traders are optimistic. But as always with Bitcoin, there’s more to the story than meets the eye.
STH Realized Cap Takes a $6 Billion Leap—But What Does That Mean?
“Realized cap” is a way of measuring the value of Bitcoin based on the last time each coin moved, rather than its current market price. In simple terms, it’s like looking at Bitcoin’s “real” market value based on actual transaction history, not just what traders hope it’s worth on any given day.
When we talk about short-term holders, we mean the users who’ve owned Bitcoin for less than 155 days. These are more active traders—people who are probably checking the price every few minutes and may or may not have a favorite meme coin they’re secretly betting on.
According to an October 5 note from CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, the realized cap for this group has jumped by $6 billion over the last week, meaning these short-term players are either increasing their bets or taking on more risk. That’s a pretty sharp shift from the previous week when the STH realized the cap was sitting at a $17 billion loss. That $6 billion “sharp increase” suggests some fresh optimism is bubbling up among these traders.
While the short-term crowd is busy flexing their newfound confidence, Bitcoin’s long-term holders are quietly doing the opposite. Over the same seven-day stretch, their realized cap dropped by $6 billion. Taha suggests this points to long-term holders possibly cashing out or locking in profits as the market shifts from Q3 to Q4.
It’s a classic case of “buy low, sell high,” but with a bit of a twist. The long-term crowd might be playing it safe, possibly anticipating some turbulence ahead, while the short-term traders are stepping in, maybe with a thought that they can ride a new wave of bullish momentum.
So, Is Bitcoin Going Up or Down From Here?
One prominent crypto trader, Rekt Capital, thinks we might be in for a short-term dip, citing some early signs of a pullback in an Oct 5 post on X (formerly Twitter). But not everyone’s on the doom-and-gloom train. Another trader, Mags, pointed out that if you zoom out, Bitcoin’s longer-term prospects are still looking pretty good. Mags highlighted that Bitcoin just closed another three-month candle above its previous all-time highs from 2021, which could mean the bigger picture is still pointing toward bullish territory.
So, if you’re the type who enjoys some crypto drama, it seems like we’re at a crossroads. Some traders are betting on a pullback, while others keep their eye on the horizon, confident that Bitcoin’s next major leg up is just around the corner.
What’s happening in the Bitcoin market right now is a classic example of the push-pull between short-term risk-takers and long-term investors. The STH crowd is ramping up their activity, possibly hoping for a quick win, while the long-term holders seem more cautious, taking profits where they can.
If you’re sitting on the sidelines, this can be a watching game of hot potato. Who’s going to end up with the winning hand? Will October live up to its bullish reputation, or are we in for a bumpier ride? As always in crypto, only time (and maybe a few market-moving whales) will tell.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this article is only for educational and informational purposes and should not be considered financial or investment advice. We are not licensed financial advisors. Always conduct your research and seek guidance from a certified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
