Bitcoin’s been on a wild ride lately—what’s new, right? After climbing 7.5% in just a week to hit a 10-week high of $67,922 on October 15, 2024, people are now wondering, is Bitcoin on the verge of crashing again?
Bitcoin’s Recent Surge: A Comeback Fueled by ETF Inflows
The recent Bitcoin price recovery wasn’t random—it’s largely thanks to a major increase in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) inflows, which totaled over $926 million in just two days. That’s a lot of cash being funneled into the market, and it’s caused the currency to rebound in a big way.
In fact, with the price now back above $67,000, an impressive 91.5% of Bitcoin holders are currently in profit. That’s a massive turnaround from just a few weeks ago when many were analyzing losses.
But there’s a possible downside to all this good news. A market where many holders get profit is usually seen as “overheated”—a setup that can lead to price corrections as investors cash out their gains. According to Into The Cryptoverse, only 8.5% of Bitcoin investors were in a loss position when Bitcoin was trading at $66,870 on October 16.
Bitcoin Futures: A New Record High, but Is a Correction Looming?
The Bitcoin futures market has also been heating up, hitting an all-time high in open interest (OI) of $38.4 billion on October 16, according to data from CoinGlass. The last time we saw such a surge in futures OI was in September, right before Bitcoin’s price took an 11.5% correction in just 12 days.
According to Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research, institutional investors are building long positions. That means the “big money” thinks Bitcoin will go up, but even the pros have to be careful of pullbacks with 5-month high futures premiums.
$68,000 Resistance: Can Bitcoin Break Through?
Bitcoin has a big resistance at $68,000. Historically this level has been a big problem. In late July 2024 when Bitcoin tried to break above this level it was rejected and then fell 27% to $49,577.
So Bitcoin bulls need to get a daily close above $68,000 to keep the rally going. If they can’t flip this level into support we could see a pullback and the price could drop to $61,000 as long as it gets liquidated.
Data from CoinGlass shows a large wall of asks rising up above $68,000. The bears are getting ready to defend this zone aggressively.
Is Another Bitcoin Crash Coming?
With so many variables in play—the ETF inflows, the futures market, and the $68K resistance—it’s clear we are at a crossroads. If the bulls can get through, we could see more of this rally. If they fail, there can be another big correction like we’ve seen before.
Momentum looks good, but history shows that periods of quick price growth are often followed by short-term corrections. Will Bitcoin crash again? Maybe, but as we’ve seen before, it’s usually followed by an even bigger rise.
- Read more: How to Buy Crypto (Bitcoin) with Sberbank?
The Experts’ Predictions on Bitcoin Price
- Peter St. Onge, an economist at the Heritage Foundation, believes that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by 2025. He argues that the U.S. presidential election of 2024 could be a major factor in what will happen to this crypto coin.
- Over at InvestingHaven, some analysts predict Bitcoin could soar past $200,000 in 2025, riding on the back of growing institutional interest and market maturity. But they also warn of price swings ranging between $50,000 and $120,000 due to regulatory uncertainties.
- The boldest of all? Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, thinks Bitcoin could top $1,000,000 by 2030. A prediction that seems straight out of a sci-fi novel, but given Bitcoin’s long-term potential and its limited supply, it’s not completely out of the speculation.
While these predictions are optimistic, there is nothing strange for now if we witness the crash of Bitcoin once again:
- 2011: Bitcoin crashed by 93% in just five months.
- 2017: After peaking near $20,000, the cryptocurrency fell to under $10,000 in only a few months.
- 2021: A similar story unfolded, with Bitcoin hitting new highs and then shedding more than 50% of its value.
Each time, though, Bitcoin has managed to claw its way back. For long-term holders, these dips have usually been a great time to buy this digital currency as much as they can when it’s facing downtime.
Why Does Bitcoin’s Price Fluctuate So Much?
The biggest factor is simple: supply and demand. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins, and as more people want to own a piece of this limited supply, the price naturally climbs just like limited stock of anything in the everyday market. However, news cycles, government regulations, and market sentiment can lead to a swing in Bitcoin’s price wildly.
When there’s positive news—like a large institution investing or a country legalizing Bitcoin—prices surge. But when there’s continuous uncertainty like China banning exchanges, panic-selling sets in, the price naturally plummets.
Final Thoughts: Should You Panic or HODL?
It’s the volatility of Bitcoin that makes it so stressful but the same volatility that has made so many people so rich. If you are willing to hold on for the long term and weather the dips, history shows that Bitcoin will pay you very well.
However, if you’re risk-averse, it’s worth considering how much you’re willing to lose. As experts remind us, “Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose”
Disclaimer
The information provided in this article is only for educational and informational purposes and should not be considered financial or investment advice. We are not licensed financial advisors. Always conduct your research and seek guidance from a certified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
